The global consensus at the end of 2025 pointed to 2026 as the year in which monetary policy rate cuts would consolidate. Under a scenario of sustained growth, controlled inflation, and strong labor markets, the narrative from the Federal Reserve (FED) and other central banks suggested a gradual return to normality. However, that optimism has faded.

Today, the outlook is radically different. Signals from central banks reflect a high degree of uncertainty, drastically reducing the probability of further rate cuts. On the contrary, the possibility of preventive rate hikes has returned to the table, strictly conditioned by the short-term behavior of inflation indicators.

The main trigger behind this shift in direction is the military conflict in Iran. Its direct impact on hydrocarbon production has destabilized global price trends. What began as an energy shock — driving up fuel prices — is now spreading into logistics and transportation costs, agricultural inputs and products, airfares, and utility services.

Even if hostilities were to cease today, the risk of inflationary contagion throughout the global production chain is already a latent reality that is unlikely to reverse immediately.

This shift in monetary policy is already weakening growth expectations for the current year, a concern validated by the most recent reports from the IMF and other multilateral organizations.

An alternative scenario — one in which hostilities cease and energy markets normalize — could reopen the possibility of discussing monetary easing. Only then could the focus shift back toward strengthening employment and supporting global growth.

In conclusion, what we currently face is a scenario of high volatility and uncertainty, with very limited ability to make medium-term projections. In this type of environment, it is not advisable to radically change course, but rather to wait until the outlook becomes clearer before committing once again to structural strategies and decisions. Unless, of course, the objective is to take on greater risk.

Fernando Zavala
Cofounder